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Thread: Tokyo Prredictions

  1. #1
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    Tokyo Prredictions

    Hello All!

    https://www.iwf.net/wp-content/plugi...ad.php?id=2062

    What are your predictions for each weight class ?

    I'll start with the women :

    W49
    Gold : Hou China
    Silver: Mirabai India
    Bronze : DelaCruz

    W55
    Gold: Liao CHI
    Silver: Diaz Phi
    Bronze : Chinshanlo Kaz

    W59
    Gold : Kuo TPE
    Silver : Andoh JAP
    Bronze: Figueroa VEN

    W64
    Gold : Charron CAN
    Silver: Tigrero COL
    Bronze : Davies GB

    W76
    Gold : Dajomes ECU
    Silver: Dekha UKR
    Bronze: Nye USA

    W87
    Gold : Wang CHI
    SIlver: Salazar ECU
    Bronze: Santana DOM

    W+87
    Gold: WEN WEN CHI
    Silver: Robles USA
    Bronze : Campbell GB

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    It seems like for ever and we are finally here.

    Just 5 or 6 years ago it would have seemed incredible to think we would be discussing the possibility of multiple medals for countries like Canada, USA, Great Britain.

    Hard to quibble too much with those choices above. Wen-Huai Chen at 64kg, big battle with Davies for a medal I think, that will come down to the last lift of each surely. Maybe Fuentes at 76 has a shot to medal. Overall, in many classes, its going to be Silver and Bronze where the battles really lay, Bronze in particular.

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    W49
    Gold : HOU Zhihui China
    Silver: CHANU Mirabai Sakhom India
    Bronze : DELACRUZ Jourdan USA

    W55
    Gold: LIAO Qiuyun CHI
    Silver: CHINSHANLO Zulfiya KAZ
    Bronze : DIAZ Hidilyn PHI

    Only made it different to be contrarian so that you can't tell I copy and pasted. They're neck and neck. I'd quite like Hidilyn to come out on top, but nevertheless I hope to see tight competition and made lifts.

    W59
    Gold : KUO Hsing-Chun TPE
    Silver : ANDO Mikiko JAP
    Bronze: ESCOBAR GUERRERO Maria Alexandria ECU

    Maria Escobar has a higher top end compared to Yusleidy Figueroa.

    W64
    Gold : CHARRON Maude CAN
    Silver: PEREZ TIGRERO Mercedes COL
    Bronze : DAVIES Sarah GBR


    W76
    Gold : DAJOMES Neisi ECU
    Silver: DEKHA Iryna UKR
    Bronze: SUHYEON Kim USA
    Kim Suhyeon has totalled more than Kate Nye on the platform thus far. Of course, Kate has hit a 114 snatch in training, but it's training. She did 105+135 at USA Nationals. Suhyeon did 106+138 at (not)2020 Asians. Realistically, it depends on who wakes up on the right side of the bed.

    W87
    Gold : WANG Zhouyu CHI
    SIlver: SALAZAR Tamara ECU
    Bronze: SANTANA Crismery DOM
    Salazar and Santana are evenly matched. Valdez has not performed to the same standard in 2021, can't speak to why. If she gets back into top shape, the battle for 2nd/3rd/4th could be very interesting. With Cikamatana absent, China's Wang Zhouyu will be (as usual) uncontested.

    W+87
    Gold: LI Wenwen CHI
    Silver: ROBLES Sarah USA
    Bronze : HUBBARD Laurel NZL
    Hubbard has somewhat erratic technique, but her top end weights are above the rest of the lifters, especially as it seems many in the supers are not in shape. It is difficult to determine whether or not she is in shape due to the fact that she has not competed in 2021. LEE Seon Mi and SALADIN Veronica have recently totalled 258 and 264, despite having best totals in the 280s. Emily Campbell does seem to be in good shape and can definitely match Hubbard in the clean and jerk, though Hubbard's snatch is considerably higher.

    Men:

    M61
    LI Fabin CHN
    IRAWAN Eko Yuli INA
    ITOKAZU Yoichi JPN
    Shota Mishvelidze has been training well and is close to Itokazu. There are a few more contenders around the low-mid 280 mark.

    M67
    Shen Lijun CHN
    MOSQUERA Luis COL
    ERGASHEV Adkhamjon UZB

    Fairly straightforward as far as predictions go, but this is a tight class. Ergashev and Mosquera are close to each other. Shen can out total everyone else - whether he will is a different story.

    M73:
    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA EEH
    MAYORA Julio VEN
    CUMMINGS Clarence Jr. USA
    Close between CJ Cummings and Bozhidar Andreev - edged towards CJ due to his 3kg better total in recent times and competing more in recent times.

    M81
    Abraham Jebediah Simpson II CHN
    PIZZOLATO Antonino ITA
    BONNAT Zacarias DOM
    Bonnat and Rodallegas (COL) are likely to challenge each other as they did at 2020 (2021) Pan Ams. Nino is a little bit ahead in most recent competition.

    M96
    ELBAKH Fares (Meso Hassona) QAT
    TSIHKANTSOU Yauvheni BLR
    PLIESNOI Anton GEO
    Again, seemingly straightforward but any of these lifters can capitalise on a bad day for the others. Tsihkantsou has not competed since the 2019 Alexander Cup so we have no clue what shape he's in. Add that to the conditions in BLR and it's possible that he'll be nowhere. But it's BLR, so he might do 400 and piss lasers. Who knows?

    M109:
    DJURAEV Akbar UZB
    MARTIROSYAN Simon ARM
    NANIEV Timur Definitely not Russia
    DJURAEV is the only athlete where I feel like we know where they stand. Naniev may be challenged by HASHEMI Ali.

    M109+ (wrong, see edit below)
    TALAKHADZE Lasha GEO
    MINASYAN Gor ARM
    DAVOUDI Ali IRI


    EDIT:
    M109+
    TALAKHADZE Lasha GEO
    DAVOUDI Ali IRI
    REIS Fernando BRA

    Bronze will be contested by REIS Fernando and ASAAD Man. BIDANI Walid has an outside chance, but his clean and jerks are terribly inconsistent.
    Last edited by strapping; 07-08-2021 at 02:09 AM. Reason: ugh

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    Strapping have you got an alternate medallist than Gor for us? cos he aint in the field.

    I really hope Eko wins a 4th medal - we're missing out on seeing Rim Jong Sim as the first female to win 3 golds.

    Yauheni is such a wild card.

    I also have a feeling that Lu will put a scare through us and let Pizzolato get a bit closer than we might think. I feel like Pizzolato will get a chance to jerk a weight he needs for Gold, whether he gets it or not we shall see, but I predict it wont be in Lu's hands at the very end.

    I'm putting the house on Djuraev.

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    I'm wary of making predictions because I think it's impossible to really know the individual impacts that covid restrictions will have had on the training and preparation of many of the athletes.

    Athletes from countries with well-resourced and state sponsored weightlifting programs like China will undoubtedly do well. But beyond that I think there's some real chances for some wildcard and unexpected results. The battles for silver & bronze should be particularly intense in most of the classes.

    It will be really interesting to watch. Athletes will be lifting to the maximum of their circumstances, rather than to the maximum of their potential.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkpeter View Post
    Strapping have you got an alternate medallist than Gor for us? cos he aint in the field.
    This is what I get for writing this post with about 2 min left to leave the house. I am immeasurably displeased with myself.

    M109+
    TALAKHADZE Lasha GEO
    DAVOUDI Ali IRI
    REIS Fernando BRA

    Bronze will be contested by REIS Fernando and ASAAD Man. BIDANI Walid has an outside chance, but his clean and jerks are terribly inconsistent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleddau View Post
    I'm wary of making predictions because I think it's impossible to really know the individual impacts that covid restrictions will have had on the training and preparation of many of the athletes.

    Athletes from countries with well-resourced and state sponsored weightlifting programs like China will undoubtedly do well. But beyond that I think there's some real chances for some wildcard and unexpected results. The battles for silver & bronze should be particularly intense in most of the classes.

    It will be really interesting to watch. Athletes will be lifting to the maximum of their circumstances, rather than to the maximum of their potential.
    Making predictions on known variables is no fun unless you're getting money for it. Usually that is only fun for a short while before it becomes, er, a little stressful.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkpeter View Post
    I really hope Eko wins a 4th medal - we're missing out on seeing Rim Jong Sim as the first female to win 3 golds.
    Yes, I find it very unfortunate we don't get to see Jong Sim (and Deng Wei).

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkpeter View Post
    Yauheni is such a wild card.
    Will he do 180+230? Did he get caught by the COVID lockdown and get fat like Aramnau? Has he been disappeared by the Belarusian government in the protests? Who knows! Instagram is private, so I have no idea what he's up to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkpeter View Post
    I also have a feeling that Lu will put a scare through us and let Pizzolato get a bit closer than we might think. I feel like Pizzolato will get a chance to jerk a weight he needs for Gold, whether he gets it or not we shall see, but I predict it wont be in Lu's hands at the very end.
    I am moderately confident that Lyu will be dangling the carrot just out of reach of Pizzolato. I would like to see Pizzolato rise to meet Lyu, but IMO his transition + explosion when lifting off the floor tends to be less accurate and thus limits his snatch. Lyu struggles to CJ in the upper range if he has succeeded with heavy snatches, so I think Pizzolato could make things up there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkpeter View Post
    I'm putting the house on Djuraev.
    I wouldn't. At Euros, Martirosyan was down bad, like a teenager at a fitexpo posing awkwardly with models at a supplement stand. But that was 3 months ago, and even with a knee injury, he still did a 415 total (-15 from Djuraev's total at Asians) That's the second highest total of all the athletes entered for Tokyo. I would put Djuraev slightly ahead for the win, but I expect Martirosyan to be right there with him.

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    I'm lazy today and concern myself with the men in a later post.

    W49
    Hou CHN 90-94-97 WR + 110-114 Win-117 TotalWR

    Mirabai IND only has a slight chance for Gold if she manages to snatch 90 and Hou misses two lifts.
    Delacruz USA is a very safe bronze. If she improves each lift by just 1kg and the Indian misses 2-3 attempts Delacruz can get the silver too.

    W55
    Liao CHN 95-98-100 + 120-128 TotalWR - 130 WR & TotalWR

    Konotop UKR 215-218 silver
    Nabieva UZB 215-216 bronze, chance for snatch WR attempt 75%

    Zhao ex-CHN, err I mean Chinshanlo KAZ misses jerks too often now. If Kazakhstan says screw this, for the Olympics we discovered our stanozolol warehouse again she wins an easy silver. But I hope not.
    Diaz PHI looks like she lifts at her absolute limit from the second attempt onwards. Not consistent enough, no medal.

    W59
    I do not consider Kuo's snatch/total from the AWC to be legitimate. In Tokyo she will likely aim for the old 58 numbers so 111/141/252.

    Andoh JPN 220-225 silver, though she needs to hit at least two snatches
    Figueroa VEN 220 bronze

    Escobar ECU has 2kg in the rankings on VEN, but she's lower in the average. Hoang VIE on paper has the advantage on both of them with 223 but the Vietnamese collectively had bad attempt selection and low success ratio in the last couple of years - bad odds with them.

    W64
    Perez COL 236-241
    Charron CAN 235-240
    Chen TPE 230-235

    Perez will be forced to eat all the contaminated meat, Colombia only has one woman to represent the nation after all. She will win by 1kg in the total because CAN will miss the final attempt to overtake her.
    Taiwan is on the upward trajectory and will smile next to a Say No to Doping poster.
    Davies GBR is just not consistently at or near 230, sorry.

    W76
    Dajomes ECU 260+ easy gold
    Dekha UKR 250+ silver
    Naumava BLR 250+ bronze

    This is a very cynical class. While the winner seems clear, the silver and bronze "should" go to Korea, Mexico or USA. However, as we saw in the last two years, most of Russia's neighbors have not followed their lead and continue with the old drug subscription (2+2 OOC failures for BLR/UKR, anybody remember Pielieshenko?). We shouldn't forget that both Dekha and Naumava had much higher totals at W75 and they're the only women for their countries respectively. Medals, at all costs, justify their NOCs funding weightlifting.

    W87
    Wang CHN 120-124-127 + 145-161
    The nameless world records at 133/165 are too much for her, so she will attempt national records instead.

    Salazar ECU 257-262 silver
    Santana DOM 256-261 bronze

    However, if DOM can pull off 3/3 in the snatch she will win silver.
    Valdes CHI is not in shape, and yes Valentin ESP is now too old.

    W87+
    Li CHN 135-143-149 WR + 175-188 WR & TotalWR
    I really wish her coach would select 150 and 190 as her final attempts since these are landmark numbers for women. But alas, the old +1 playbook is much more likely.

    Robles USA 286-291 silver, very consistent lifter
    Campbell GBR 280+ bronze

    Weird class because nobody seems to be in shape? Neither Lee KOR, nor Hubbard NZL nor Saladin DOM. Campbell improved plenty and had strength for more at Euros.
    Last edited by erpel; 07-10-2021 at 09:13 AM.

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    Will you look at that, it's Sunday!

    M61
    Li CHN 138-143-146 WR + 170-173 TotalWR - 176 WR & TotalWR
    Irawan INA 136-140-143 + 168-175 WR - 180x WR & TotalWR attempt

    Bronze is between Thach VIE and Itokazu JPN. I give it to the handsome Vietnamese because his average towards 300 is better IF he makes lifts, which granted, is a dodgy encounter.

    M67
    Shen CHN 145-150-153 + 175-182 Win - 189 WR & TotalWR

    Ergashev UZB 325-330 silver
    Mosquera COL 323-327 bronze

    The Uzbek will win second place on his 3rd c&j with ca. 185. The Colombian will miss at least one lift and not get to or over 330.

    M73
    Shi CHN 160-165-170 WR + 190-194 Total WR - 200 WR & TotalWR
    Can we get these neat numbers, please? Maturity will prevent him from power cleaning his opening c&j.

    Andreev BUL 347-352 silver
    Mayora VEN 346-351 bronze

    Bulgaria needs a medal, they will go all out. Cummings USA c&j are inconsistent, he will miss his last attempt in the mid-190s for the medal.

    M81
    Lyu CHN 166-171-176x WR attempt + 199-204 Win - 208x WR & Total WR attempt
    Pizzolato ITA 157-162-165 + 195-202-206
    Rodallegas COL 160-165-169 + 195-201x-201

    Bonnat DOM will miss his last c&j at 206-208 to overtake the Colombian.

    M96
    Elbakh QAT 173-177-181x + 220-225 Win - 232 WR
    Pliesnoi GEO 395-400 silver
    Tsikhantsou BLR 390-395 bronze*
    (Santavy CAN 390-395 bronze)

    *decent chance the Belarusian doesn't show up at all because of an OOC disclosure on July 23

    M109
    Martirosyan ARM 191-196-201 WR + 230-235 TotalWR - 242x WR & TotalWR attempt
    Djuraev UZB 190-194-197 + 225-234-240x TotalWR attempt
    Hristov BUL 405-410

    Naniev RUS will miss out on the bronze by 1kg.

    M109+
    Talakhadze GEO 212-218-223 WR + 245-255-267x WR & Total WR attempt
    Davoudi IRI 437-442 silver
    Assad SYR 430-435 bronze

    Slight elbow pressout on 267 will be judged 2-1 against.

    The totals of Reis BRA are all over the place and I'd bet against him reaching 435+ again.
    Last edited by erpel; 07-12-2021 at 03:01 AM.

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    Odds on a medal favourite having to pull out due to a covid positive or close contact?

    For some reason I don't see Simon taking the 109 win. Think Djuraev is gonna take it.

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